A novel water based battery is said to be safer than lithium at half the cost.
A Boston-area startup called Alsym Energy has introduced a rechargeable water based battery that could match lithium-ion batteries’ performance at a fraction of the price.
In addition to using inexpensive, easily accessible materials like manganese and metal oxide, the novel battery is based on water, according to an initial report from Fast Company.
Being a water based battery means it avoids some of the main drawbacks of current batteries, such as the potential for lithium-ion battery fires and the negative impact of mining on the environment. And thanks to the use of non-toxic materials, the water based battery design is simpler to recycle, which is always a bonus.
Electric vehicles are becoming more important as the world’s nations step up their efforts to decarbonize the grid. That’s because they can aid in decarbonizing both transportation and supply of electricity through reduced tailpipe emissions and offer flexibility. Naturally, many automakers are tapping into the market by producing luxurious EVs; however, the expensive price tag remains to be a problem to this day. The costs are partly due to the lithium-ion batteries that are used in electric vehicles, which are too costly to make EVs that can compete in price tag with cars that run on fossil fuels.
This is where Alsym Energy, which recently emerged from stealth and secured $32 million from investors, comes in. According to a press release, with its first partner being an automaker in India, the startup wants to make it possible for manufacturers to produce cheaper electric vehicles.
“Our motivation was to make it affordable so that it could be widely deployed as opposed to niche,” Mukesh Chatter, CEO and co-founder of the startup, told Fast Company.
The Alsym Energy water based battery is inexpensive enough that it might be used in developing countries to store off-grid solar power. This is especially crucial for individuals who do not currently have access to energy.
What Makes the Water Based Battery Special?
The water based zinc battery makes use of other affordable, easily accessible components like manganese and metal oxide. Crucially, it does not contain cobalt, an expensive critical component of lithium batteries that also contributes to supply-chain health and environmental issues due to unethical mining practices. It also doesn’t use lithium at all, which requires resource-intensive salar brine extraction methods, mainly concentrated in conflict-prone regions of South America. Avoiding lithium and cobalt reliance is incredibly important as both metals have seen extreme price increases recently amid surging EV demand.
Lithium carbonate prices have skyrocketed over 750% in the last two years. And cobalt more than doubled in cost since 2020. These unstable dynamics will likely drive up prices of lithium-ion batteries for the foreseeable future. By swapping water for expensive, ethically fraught raw materials, the aqueous zinc batter stands to radically transform the energy storage calculus in terms of affordability, local manufacturing potential, and stability of supply chains.
According to the team behind Alsym Energy, the new design has “lithium-like performance.” But unlike the latter, Alsym Energy’s batteries are not flammable. This saves money as it doesn’t require special protection to avoid fires and gives the batteries additional applications, such as use in ships, where the industry is particularly concerned about fire risk.
If all goes to plan, Alsym Energy will start beta testing with its first customers in early 2023, with high-volume production beginning as early as 2025. The novel battery design will surely make waves globally; however, the company’s priority is to first make it affordable in low-income regions.
Aluminum is one of the most widely used industrial materials available today. It exists in our cars, our boats and ships, and in the buildings we live in.
In the EV industry, the importance of aluminum cannot be overstated, given that it is required to create the casing of the batteries that power the vehicle. The benefits of aluminum come down to its strength and its weight.
However, mining the raw materials that go into aluminum harms our environment. Bauxite is a mineral used in the creation of aluminum, and the mines that pull the ore out of the ground are responsible for acres of deforestation, water pollution via the Bayer process, air pollution due to the temperatures required to forge it, and other environmental impacts.
The aluminum manufacturing industry has been taking steps to reduce its reliance on new aluminum, though current technology still requires a sizeable amount of new aluminum to recycle scrap aluminum.
However, a new technology has been created that could eliminate that need entirely. This is how the ShAPE aluminum recycling process could change how we procure aluminum.
What is it, and How Does it Work?
The Shape aluminum recycling (Shear Assisted Processing Extrusion) process is an innovative new method of recycling aluminum created by the United States Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Washington.
This process was created primarily for the automotive industry so as to reduce the reliance on freshly created aluminum and cut the environmental impacts of creating EVs. The process was also created in collaboration with Magna, a leading mobile technology company.
This process could reduce 50% of the embodied energy and 90% of the carbon dioxide emissions output by reducing the amount of aluminum required by mining. The ShAPE aluminum recycling process is unique because it doesn’t require any pre-heating step to remove impurities in the scrap aluminum.
It works by rotating the aluminum on a die in the ShAPE aluminum recycling machine while being pushed through a small opening. Combining rotation and deformation ensures that the metal elements are distributed evenly, eliminating the need for a pre-heating process.
In testing to ensure that the aluminum produced by ShAPE aluminum recycling is as strong as they think, they used electron microscopy and electron backscatter diffraction to create an image of the placement and microstructure of the metal particle within the finished product.
They did this test using aluminum 6063, also known as architectural aluminum. They found that this aluminum product was uniformly strong and lacked manufacturing defects that would otherwise cause the aluminum to fail in its application.
They also found no impurities in the metal, which is important due to the fact that the metal they used was entirely recycled, and raw scrap metal is full of impurities.
While incredibly promising, EV technology currently relies on industries and industrial methods that are incredibly damaging to the environment. The EV industry is working hard to eliminate this contradiction of being eco-friendly yet requiring damage to the environment to be created.
With the ShAPE aluminum recycling method, there could be significant changes to multiple industries, not only the automotive industry. A lead researcher on the project, Scott Whalen, said, “We are now working on including post-consumer waste streams, which could create a whole new market for secondary aluminum scrap.”
While current methods are being used, the environmental damage cannot be understated. However, in the future, using this new method, things could change forever for the better.
Canada’s Sustainable Jobs Plan is intended to train workers for new roles in preparation for the future of a green economy. The government has presented a sustainable jobs bill that will provide the workforce needed for what is called a “just transition” to a new green economy. The country aims for a 40-45% reduction in emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hopes the Sustainable Jobs Plan will help attract billions of dollars in investment by creating a skilled clean energy workforce. The bill, which will become law early in 2024, will publish an action plan every five years to put in place measures to invest in the net-zero emissions economy and skills of the future. From 2025, the government plans to release a new sustainable jobs plan every five years.
This new legislation has been ongoing for over two years of consultations and conversations with provinces and territories, Indigenous Peoples, workers and unions, industry, environmental and civil society organizations and interested Canadians. Based on these conversations, the creation of the Sustainable Jobs Plan put forward ten concrete actions to advance the creation of sustainable jobs and support workers in every part of Canada. These actions include:
Establish the sustainable jobs secretariat: This will ensure federal policies and program coordination among Government departments.
Create a Sustainable Partnership Council: This council would advise the government on job creation and support workers.
Develop economic strategies through the Regional Energy and Resource Tables: These tables will work with provincial and territorial governments, Indigenous groups and other partners to identify a set of concrete actions and develop economic strategies.
Introduce a sustainable jobs stream under the Union Training and Innovation Program: This will provide workers with training, equipment and materials that meet industry standards and investments that support a low-carbon economy.
Advanced funding for skills development for sustainable jobs: This will be achieved by working with universities, colleges, union training centres and employer groups to help workers succeed in a net-zero economy.
Promote Indigenous-led solutions and a National Benefits-Sharing Framework: This will be achieved by continuously supporting Indigenous-owned clean energy projects across Canada.
Improve labour market data collection, tracking and analysis: These improvements will help the council provide advice and identify new measures and actions that must be taken.
Motivate investors and draw in industry leaders to support workers: The money will be used to support green infrastructure, clean technologies, climate action, and environmental protection.
Collaborate and lead on the global stage: Canada is committed to ensuring that their best practices and lessons learned are shared globally.
Establish legislation that ensures ongoing engagement and accountability: The overall goal is that all Canadians are involved in the decision-making process and that everyone adapts to new changes to help achieve our goals.
Canada’s Sustainable Jobs Plan will train people in jobs that are compatible with Canada’s path to a net-zero emissions and climate-resilient future. These include:
Clean energy: This includes jobs in solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal power generation, as well as energy efficiency and conservation.
Green infrastructure: This includes jobs in building and maintaining sustainable infrastructure, such as green roofs, rainwater harvesting systems, and electric vehicle charging stations.
Low-carbon transportation: This includes jobs in electric vehicle manufacturing, public transit, and active transportation (e.g., walking, biking, and rolling).
Sustainable agriculture: This includes jobs in organic farming, sustainable forestry, and aquaculture.
Recycling and waste management: This includes jobs in recycling, composting, and waste-to-energy.
Environmental monitoring and remediation: This includes jobs in monitoring air and water quality and cleaning up contaminated sites.
The Sustainable Jobs Plan will help to ensure Canada has the skilled workforce it needs to build a clean, healthy future for the country.
Think-tank Clean Energy Canada expects jobs in this sector will grow by 3.4% annually over the next decade, nearly four times faster than the Canadian average. With the commitment from the Canadian government to the Sustainable Jobs Plan, there is hope that the country can meet its environmental goals and that sustainable jobs will become the new normal across the country.
The company is today (11 January) celebrating the achievement of European Community Whole Vehicle Type Approval (ECWVTA) for its 7.5-tonne battery-electric truck. In doing so, regulators have deemed the model as compliant with relevant safety and environmental standards. This is a prerequisite to selling any new vehicle models within the European Union (EU).
Tevva states that this model has a range of up to 180 kilometres (110 miles) per charge and that it can charge to 90% of this maximum range within five hours using existing charging technologies. It is marketed as a solution for urban routes and last-mile deliveries for international routes. The model is manufactured at Tevva’s factory in Tilbury, Essex, with the brand eyeing new manufacturing locations elsewhere in Europe for the future.
The first Tevva 7.5T Electric Trucks were delivered to commercial customers in the second half of 2022. The first one off the assembly line was purchased by Kinaxia Logistics in September 2022, for use on a trial basis in the first instance.
With the confirmation of the ECWVTA, Tevva is anticipating sales of up to 1,000 electric trucks this year, predominantly to the UK market. Customers on the brand’s books include Travis Perkins, Expect Distribution and Royal Mail. Royal Mail is notably working towards a net-zero value chain by 2040, with plans to operate more than 5,500 electric vehicles (EVs) and increase charging infrastructure investment by spring this year.
Tevva’s founder and chief executive Asher Bennett has called the ECWVTA “the most important landmark [the company] has reached to date”. No other pure electric truck of this size has received the Approval yet.
The news will be welcome amid the ongoing uncertainty around EV battery manufacturing in the UK. Britishvolt this week wrote to existing investors confirming that it is in talks to sell a majority stake, in order to safeguard a sustainable financial future for the development of its Gigafactory in Blyth.
In the coming months, Tevva is set to deliver its first 7.5T hydrogen-electric trucks to customers, following the first public launch of the model at the Road Transport Expo in Warwickshire last summer. Combining a hydrogen fuel cell system with a battery-electric design extends the vehicle range; this model touts a range of up to 435km (270 miles). Tevva is then exploring heavier hydrogen trucks of 12 tonnes and 19 tonnes in the longer term.
Bennett said: “We are on a mission to make sustainable trucks accessible at scale and believe our technology will empower the transport sector and the governments of Europe to meet their net-zero goals. By embracing both hydrogen and electric fuel sources, we can rethink the energy mix in transport, reduce strain on our electricity grid and accelerate electric truck adoption.”
Trucks in the clean transition
The UK is set to end the sale of new diesel and petrol heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) weighing 3.5 tonnes to 26 tonnes from 2034. A later deadline of 2040 has been set for heavier models. These targets, set under the 2021 Transport Decarbonisation Plan, are in support of the UK’s legally binding 2050 net-zero climate goal.
EU lawmakers are currently being pushed by large fleet operators to set similar targets. More than 40 corporate members of the Climate Group’s EV100 coalition signed an open letter to EU lawmakers last month, asking for emissions targets for HGVs and a deadline on ending the sale of all new trucks which are not zero-emissions. Supporters of the letter included PepsiCo, Unilever and Henkel.
Last summer, Royal Mail announced an ambition to add 3,000 more EVs to its fleet as soon as possible, up from around 300 EVs it was operating at the time.
The firm has now posted strong progress, celebrating the deployment of its 3,000th EV at its Peterborough Delivery Office. The hub has a fully electric fleet of 106 vehicles now, and is one of 70 Royal Mail locations to host EVs. Other locations with only electric fleets include Bristol.
Royal Mail also announced a new order for 2,000 electric vans and a new target to have 5,500 EVs in its fleet by spring 2023, given that the first deliveries of the additional vans will begin this month.
The additional order for 2,000 vans is split evenly between the Peugeot Partner and Peugeot Expert models.
Peugeot claims that the pure electric partner can travel up to 171 miles per charge, with a payload of up to 800 kilograms. It markets the model as ideal to replace diesel models of similar sizes. For the Expert, Peugeot boasts a range of up to 205 miles per charge and rapid charging capabilities. The Expert is the smaller of the two models.
“Environment is the next battleground for businesses, and we are determined to lead,” said Royal Mail Group’s chief executive Simon Thompson. “The transition to electric vehicles is a key part of our strategy to reduce our emissions whilst delivering a seven-day parcel service to our customers.”
Royal Mail is working towards an overarching climate goal of net-zero emissions across the value chain by 2040.
The firm previously said in a statement that, aside from the emissions reduction and clean air benefits of EVs, the vehicles “also increasingly make more economic sense than diesel vehicles in the long-term”. This is a reason increasingly given amid the energy price crisis, with wholesale petrol and diesel prices having climbed steeply in the first half of the year and reductions being slow to be passed on at the pump now.
Royal Mail is also exploring alternative fuels as well as EVs. In May 2021, it added 29 40-tonne biogas-powered trucks to its fleet. More innovative solutions, such as micromobility in cities and drones for remote areas, are also in the pipeline. The firm is aiming to convert its road fleets entirely to EVs and alternative fuels, phasing out petrol and diesel entirely, but has not set a target date.
Latest EV registration figures
In related news, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has published its latest data on car registrations, covering July.
The data confirms that, overall, new car registrations were down 9% year-on-year, despite a slight uptick in sales month-on-month. The SMMT highlighted how chip shortages are still impacting supply chains, and how the cost-of-living crisis is continuing to bite.
The decline was primarily led by a reduction in petrol and diesel sales, although plug-in hybrid sales also tanked by 34% year-on-year. Battery electric vehicle sales, however, were up by almost 10% year-on-year.
12,243 battery electric vehicles were registered in July 2022. This brings the number of these vehicles registered in 2022 so far to 127,492, compared to around 85,000 during the whole of 2021.
Commenting on the figures, SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said: ‘The automotive sector has had another tough month and is drawing on its fundamental resilience during a third consecutive challenging year as the squeeze on supply bedevils deliveries.
“While order books are strong, we need a healthy market to ensure the sector delivers the carbon savings government ambitions demand.
“The next Prime Minister must create the conditions for economic growth, restore consumer confidence and support the transition to zero-emission mobility.”
Indeed, the next PM’s Ministers will have the job of updating the Government’s Net-Zero Strategy after the High Court deemed it unlawful.
Cruise, General Motors majority-owned autonomous vehicle unit, has scored final approvals to operate a commercial, robotaxi service in San Francisco, the company announced on Thursday.
The California Public Utilities Commission granted Cruise its permit after the California DMV allowed autonomous vehicle deployments by Cruise, and Alphabet’s Waymo.
Autonomous vehicle venture Cruise, which is majority-owned by General Motors, just scored the final permit it needed to offer its robotaxi service to paying riders in San Francisco, the company announced on Thursday.
Cruise boasted in a blog post that the authorization is “the first-ever Driverless Deployment Permit granted by the California Public Utilities Commission, ” and makes the company that first to operate a “a commercial, driverless ridehail service in a major US city.”
The company’s cars are fully electric and battery-powered, which is also a potential win for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases that cause climate change. The company told CPUC in an Apr. 2021 letter that it aims to make California roads safer and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Earlier, the California Department of Motor Vehicles approved autonomous vehicle deployment permits for both Cruise and Alphabet’s Waymo.
Cruise was already offering nighttime rides to the public in San Francisco in its driverless cars, although it had not yet required passengers to pay a fare.
Police previously pulled a Cruise driverless vehicle over in San Franciso, and a video of the incident went viral. The California DMV told CNBC that, despite that incident , as of late April the department had yet to issue a traffic ticket to any driverless vehicle operator.
Rodney Brooks, professor emeritus in robotics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, rode in Cruise driverless taxis recently and wrote favorably of the experience on his blog.
He said, in that post, “Cruise has put together an MVP, a ‘Minimal Viable Product,’ the lynchpin of successful tech.” He also specified that he does not believe mass adoption of driverless cars is near. He wrote, “We have a ways to go yet, and mass adoption might not be in the form of one-for-one replacement of human driving that has driven this dream for the last decade or more.”
Competitors of Cruise are also testing driverless vehicles in San Francisco.
Alphabet’s Waymo has offered free driverless rides to employees or members of a testing program in San Francisco. It has also completed “tens of thousands” of rides without a driver behind the wheel in Arizona.
Another driverless startup, focused on transporting goods instead of passengers, Nuro, has a deployment permit to operate driverless cars in San Francisco, too.
While Tesla CEO Elon Musk often touts the company’s ambitions to deliver cars that are “robotaxi-ready,” Tesla vehicles at a maximum feature its Full Self Driving Beta program, an experimental driver assistance system, which requires drivers to keep their hands on the wheel and remain attentive to the road at all times.
Cars are going electric but the rising piles of their used batteries will become a very big problem three to four years down the road. But the world can’t wait three to four years for a solution. “We need one now,” says Bryan Oh, chief executive of NEU Battery Materials, a Singapore-based startup that takes a unique approach to battery recycling.
Electric vehicles (EVs) put on the road in 2019 alone will eventually produce 500,000 tonnes of battery waste. By 2040, two-thirds of all car sales are expected to be electric generating 1,300 gigawatt-hours of waste batteries, according to the International Energy Agency. Currently, only about 5 per cent of Lithium-ion batteries, the rechargeable batteries most commonly found in EVs, are recycled globally.
Disposing of lithium, which is prized for its conductive properties, is particularly problematic. Typically, lithium isn’t recovered from the battery recycling process, because recycling it is complicated and involves multiple stages to purify it. A lack of a viable alternative means that it is currently cheaper to mine more lithium than recycle it. But this could change as global lithium supply comes under pressure.
Demand for lithium has quadrupled in the past 10 years. As a result, lithium prices have soared, quadrupling in a year. Elon Musk, the chief executive of electric automaker Tesla, said earlier this year that he would consider mining the element himself, to bring prices under control. Mining expert Joe Lowry said last week that lithium supply is falling worryingly short of demand, which is projected to be 14 times greater by 2030.
People drive a Tesla because they want to be green. But they don’t realise how much pollution is created from mining materials and manufacturing EVs.
Bryan Oh, founder and chief executive, NEU Battery Materials
Oh, who was among the winners of sustainability solutions contest The Liveability Challenge in 2021, believes his firm’s technology is a gamechanger in keeping lithium supply in circulation, using a method that has a low environmental impact.
Typically, recovering metals from batteries involves burning or using acid — both polluting processes. Oh’s method, which was developed by the National University of Singapore (NUS), uses electricity to extract the lithium from used batteries. This reduces the amount of chemicals and water needed in the process.
The technology is still in its pilot phase but Oh has ambitious plans to expand overseas and set up up in major EV markets, like China and Europe. He is about to close another round of seed funding as he eyes scale.
In this interview with Eco-Business, Oh talks about the impact of Covid and soaring lithium prices on his venture, the challenges of finding talent in an emerging industry, and what he wants to say to Elon Musk.
How does NEU’s battery recycling technology work?
NEU’s technology focuses on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. This is a type of lithium-ion battery increasingly used by Tesla and other major EV makers.
LFP batteries do not contain nickel or cobalt, so are usually considered of lower recycling value than other types of lithium-ion batteries. NEU’s technology can extract the lithium at lower cost.
An electrochemical process separates the batteries into iron phosphate and lithium hydroxide, at a recovery rate of more than 95 per cent and purity levels of about 99 per cent for both materials.
This process for producing battery grade lithium is up to 100 times less polluting and up to 10 times more profitable compared to existing recycling technologies, according to NEU.
What impact has the high price of lithium had on your venture?
By next year, some reports predict that there will not be enough lithium to support EV growth. The price increase is a clear sign that there is not enough supply. The price will continue to go up, and that could hurt EV adoption. Consumers are not going to pay double the price for an EV car. It’s urgent that we find alternative sources of raw materials to sustain industry growth.
What impact did Covid have on your venture?
We were born out of Covid. Before Covid I was working on a startup called PortaLockers, a portable storage system. Covid killed my startup, but it did give me the opportunity to work with the NUS Graduate Research Innovation Programme (NUS GRIP), out of which NEU Battery Materials was born.
There have been many downsides to Covid — I got the sense that businesses were less open to innovation, it was difficult in the beginning. But Covid did drive a change in the market perception of EVs. In 2019, nobody was really talking about electrification. But in 2020, we started to see regulations pushing for EVs as pressure grew on governments to fight climate change.
How far are you from being a fully functioning, commercially viable lithium recycler?
Our first milestone is to build the pilot site in Singapore, which should be up and running by the third quarter of this year. It may not be fully automated, but we will be able to collect all the data we need to scale the operation. We can achieve scale easier than other recyclers, because we use a cell stacks system that works like Lego. It allows us to adapt to changing market demand very quickly.
The EV market in Singapore is still young. Will you have enough used battery feedstock to sustain the business?
There isn’t the same level of feedstock in Singapore as there is in other markets, like China, Europe and the United States. So we will be looking to expand overseas over the next few of years. There is already a decent supply of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries in Singapore from older EVs, hybrid vehicles, energy storage units, power tools and forklifts. We’re working with a battery crushing company in Singapore, Secure Waste Management, that provides us with feedstock.
Where will you look to expand?
Where the big global EV markets are. Lithium is a key commodity for EVs. All of the world’s big EV markets are setting up their own domestic supply chains for EVs. Shipping batteries is more dangerous than transporting your average household products, so there’s a need for local recycling infrastructure to keep EVs materials in circulation locally. It also reduces logistical costs and the carbon footprint of production. This is why Tesla is setting up a new giga factory [which makes lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicle components] in the US, in addition to its factories in Europe and China. In China, more than 60 per cent of batteries are LFP now — and nobody’s recycling it. It’s an untapped market.
Clearly there’s a huge market opportunity for your technology, and the timing seems to be right. But what are the key challenges you’re facing?
One is regulatory support. This is still a new industry, and some regulations still need to be worked out along the way. But I feel the Singapore government is supportive of EVs [the government recently set a new target to reduce the city-state’s land transport emissions by 80 per cent from its 2016 peak “by or around mid-century”, and plans for every public housing area to be EV-ready by 2025].
Another is finding the right talent and skillset in a new field in a country with a young EV market [Oh is currently looking to hire an electrochemical engineer], particularly as we look to scale. Our company is built on technology. As long as we can demonstrate the technology with a successful pilot, the business and the partners will come, because we offer a recycling solution that nobody else has. People form the core of our technical knowledge, and we’re always looking for more.
Also, getting noticed by car manufacturers is not easy, as we are still small. I know that Tesla will be interested in us, as they will need to find a recycling solution in Singapore. If I could have five minutes with Elon Musk, I just need to tell him that we are recycling LFP batteries. I’m hoping that with the pilot site, we’ll be able to attract these guys to come down to look at what we’re trying to do.
Pressure on supply of the materials needed to make electric cars has provided impetus to supporters of deep-sea mining. What are your thoughts on deep-sea mining?
Deep-sea mining could ruin ocean ecosystems so that we can electrify the transport industry. It is ironic that we would be destroying the environment to protect the environment. But I do understand the reasons for deep-sea mining. Governments are in a race to electrify transport. If they don’t electrify as fast as other countries, they lose competitive advantage.
Where do you see yourself in five years’ time?
I hope that we will have a global presence, with Singapore as the hub for innovation, with around 100 people. We’ll be recycling all LFP batteries and reducing a proportion of the waste from the EV industry. I want to create an industry that is clean and sustainable. People drive a Tesla because they want to be green. But a lot of people don’t realise how much pollution is created from mining materials and manufacturing EVs. We want to be able to offset some of this pollution.
This interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.
This story is part of a series on the finalists of The Liveability Challenge, an annual search for solutions to make Southeast Asia’s cities cleaner, greener places to live and work, backed by Temasek Foundation.
Petrol prices racing towards $4 a litre has further enlivened Kiwi interest in new electric cars, but those taking the plunge are much more likely to find themselves on a waiting list than in a vehicle.
That feedback comes from the motor industry, which says the latest influence on pain at the pump, Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, could well inflict more than the punishing oil prices hitting Kiwi motorists’ pockets now.
David Crawford, chief executive of the Motor Industry Association which represents almost all new vehicle distributors, is concerned the invasion has exacerbated supply chain crunches already so disrupted some national distributors have ceased taking forward orders.
David Crawford, chief executive of the Motor Industry Association.
“Fuel prices were going up already, but they have spiked because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.There is no doubt that heightened fuel price has increased the number of enquiries about (these) low emission vehicles. I am receiving that feedback from distributors.”
Whether distributors can meet this demand is far from clear. His feel is that few, if any, are in that position. The war is a blow to an industry already feeling stress from almost all new vehicles being subject to stock issues.
Franchises’ ability to supply new products has been steadily lessening for some time, but potential a new buyer having to wait at least a few months or perhaps more than a year for their vehicle has likely elevated even more now.
“Constraining that (demand) is disruption around availability of vehicles.”
Crawford says Russia and Ukraine manufacture semiconductors, vital to modern cars and already in short supply before Russia kicked off its incursion on February 24. Ukraine is a big supplier of car components, mainly to European makers. Russia supplies rare earth and precious metals.
The semiconductor crisis has already evidenced here with de-contenting of some popular cars. One example is the new petrol Mitsubishi Outlander. It launched late last year with a digital dashboard, but that only featured on the first shipment of 100 cars. It then regressed to an analogue display.
Electrified cars – whether in wholly electric or plug-in and hybrid forms – are especially reliant on semiconductors, Crawford says.
The Mitsubishi Outlander has been a victim of the semiconductor shortage.
“Electric vehicles have a high number of chips. We already had a processing chip shortage in vehicles and this (conflict) has only made it worse.
“Historically every time fuel price increases by more than 50 cents a litre, and stays up, buying patterns change and people look for more fuel efficiency,” he says.
“Fifteen years ago that was smaller cars with smaller engines. These days they are looking at electric vehicles, PHEVs and hybrids.”
Government’s Clean Car rebate that discounted $8625 from the price of a new full electric with a recommended retail under $80,000, and lesser amounts from PHEVs below that ceiling (with hybrids due to benefit from April 1) has already clearly fed electric interest at new car level, but often the point where it far exceeds national allocations. There’s no solution to that.
“Some brands have stopped taking orders for some really popular models because wait lists are nine to 12 months out.
“It’s a common factor for EVs and PHEVs. The challenge is being able to get enough here to satisfy demand. People are going to have to be patient.”
The Clean Car Programme has also driven interest in EVs, PHEVs and hybrids. WAKA KOTAHI
Crawford wouldn’t like to forecast how long this scenario might stretch out.
“The longer that drags out the longer it’ll take to adjust… I’m not prepared to make a prediction about how long that conflict will last. A Westernised Ukraine is clearly untenable to Russia.”
Mark Gilbert, chairman of Drive Electric, a high-profile not-for-profit EV advocacy group, concurs with Crawford’s views.
A former car industry chief executive (he ran BMW New Zealand from 2004 to 2012), Gilbert believes more EVs will be registered here this year than in 2021, in itself a record period, with 13,247 new and ex-overseas’ used registrations, but only because of already cemented forward planning by companies.
“Most car companies would have been planning for more EVs in 2022 than they were in 2021, I feel confident in saying by the end of this year we will see more EVs sold in 2022 than last year.
“In January and February the combined uptake (of EVs) was 2500 vehicles so, if that trend continues, we are conceivably looking at 15,000 for the year.”
Yet the next two to three months “will be very interesting,” he said, adding that with the conflict, the microchip shortage and shipping issues “It’s a bit of a nightmare to forecast.”
Mark Gilbert, chairman of Drive Electric. SUPPLIED/STUFF
With just under 40,000 electric vehicles in circulation overall, the sector is building off a low base, he says.
Crawford has suggested anyone seeking to step out of a vehicle that is becoming too expensive to run might, in some circumstances, simply be better off forgetting about buying into anything new at all.
However, those involved in that trade don’t see ex-Japan used stock being necessarily available in abundance to fulfil that.
David Vinsen, chief executive of the Vehicle Importers Association, the industry body for the used import trade, says as much as his members will likely focus more on sourcing efficient vehicles, this is a finite source.
New Zealand traders are competing with other countries, including Australia, to secure EV stock and, while it sounded facile to say it, “they (the Japanese car market) are not making any more five-year old cars.”
The VIA has just secured victory in its fight to achieve a 25 percent reduction in penalties against used vehicles that introduce when the Clean Car legislation enacts on April 1.
The association had originally expected penalties to be around half of those of new vehicles, acknowledging the shorter time used cars spend on the fleet, but instead the calculator issued by the Ministry of Transport showed they were the same.
Even with that impact halved, the VIA believes Clean Car will, at least for the foreseeable future, lead to increased prices and decreased options for car buyers.
Vinsen, who is on a Government-established low emission vehicle working group, is concerned the formula for Government’s emissions reduction actions still isn’t right.
He says the effect of the Clean Car discount on used import candidate vehicles has been that prices in Japan have climbed. “It has been an immediate wealth transfer from New Zealand to Japan.
“The price of petrol will increase demand for efficient vehicles, including EVs, which is what we have been advocating all along.
“If the Government was serious about driving the demand for fuel efficient vehicles and EVs they would do it through the Emissions Trading Scheme and put a proper carbon tax on petrol, let the user pay and let the demand fall where it should.
“Instead they won’t deal with the substantive issue. The Clean Car Standard and the Clean Car discount are only superficial exercises to make it appear the Government is doing something. What’s going to happen in two, three, five years’ time? They are going to look back and think ‘why on Earth isn’t this working?’
“We are bringing in every EV we can get our hands on and our colleagues in the new industry are doing the same. But there are finite supplies… with the pool of used cars internationally, but particularly in Japan, what is there is there.
“All it’s going to do is put the price of vehicles up.”
Gilbert, meanwhile, wonders how influential China might become.
He points out that Shanghai-based BYD, primarily a producer of budget fully electric models, has just announced intent to start selling in Australia. Even though the distributor also has rights to NZ, it’s not clear when the brand will start up here.
Yet China is a juggernaut, being the world’s top EV market and also the global leader in production.
“You have a lot of brands in China – they seem to be rolling out a new one every week,” says Gilbert.
“Even though not many are building in right-hand drive, if they don’t have the same supply chain issues, there is perhaps an opportunity.”
Regardless of how hard it might be to secure an electric car, those who already own one will be relieved to escape paying so much for petrol.
His own car, a premium sector Audi e-tron SUV, is proving increasingly cost-effective.
“It’s basically costing the equivalent of 30 cents a litre to fill. Putting in fuel that’s costing 10 times that has got to be making people think.”
The US Postmaster General has blown off the electric vehicle revolution, but the US Army can show him how it’s done. The Army just launched a net zero goal and the Army Reserve already has an electrification plan for its non-tactical vehicles with a zero emission goal by the end of FY 27. That’s partly on account of climate change, and competition from near-peer adversaries also comes into play.
Climate Change & National Defense
The US Department of Defense is well aware that climate change is a leading national security threat, having included climate impacts in its Quadrennial Defense Reports going back to 2010. In 2020, the US Air Force proposed a carbon negative goal across all the Armed Services, and last month the US Army announced a net zero goal.
Not to be confused with the National Guard, the US Army Reserve consists of soldiers who serve part-time and train regularly. Their main mission is to fill Army jobs that are vacated when active duty soldiers get deployed, though if the need is great, the Reserve can be deployed as well.
The US Army Reserve is right on point with the Defense Department’s messaging on climate change. Earlier this month it published an overview of its EV plans, leading with the observation that “climate change and near-peer adversary innovations demand the Army diversify energy sources” and focus on “energy efficiency and resilience.”
The US Army, Near-Peer Adversaries, And…
The pairing of climate change with the emergence of peer and near-peer threats is an interesting one, because it is directly relevant to the US posture towards Russia, which embarked on a murderous, unprovoked rampage through neighboring Ukraine last week.
Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey set the stage for that attack seven years ago, in a speech at the Danish Army Academy in 2015. The speech was intended to underscore an experience gap in the US armed services. Americans who served during the Cold War had a different experience regarding peer threats, compared to those who came after the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Dempsey noted that signs of a shift in ground came with the 9/11 attack, which exposed US vulnerabilities at home, but the real game-changer came in 2012, when Russia overran and annexed Crimea. Russia literally changed its borders, leveraged ethnic tensions, and undermined credibility of NATO.
“It’s the first time in 41 years we’ve had a legitimate risk emanating from state actors,” Dempsey observed.
Foreshadowing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Dempsey warned that the US needs to step back into its Cold War mindset and prepare, once again, to face equivalent threats.
Those fighting today need to “understand how to live in that world, understand how to use the military instrument in that world, understand the meaning of deterrence, understand the meaning of maneuver and how to set a theater,” he concluded.
Dempsey’s words rippled out in force just one year later in 2016, when former President Trump won election as a friend of Russia, an enemy of NATO, and an alleged extortionist accused of withholding military aid to Ukraine in exchange for a political favor.
…Tanks, But No Tanks
That brings us around to the US Army and the electric vehicle question. The Army has been slow on the EV uptake. The consensus is that 100% electrification is a long way off for tanks and other tactical vehicles, though fuel efficiency improvements and plug-in hybrids are within sight. Last week the Army unveiled two hybrid electric Bradley tank prototypes, pointing out tactical benefits like silent drive, as well as fuel efficiency and ease of maintenance.
In terms of tank warfare, though, something has to change. The US experience in Iraq demonstrated tactical and logistical shortcomings, and now Russia is providing another demo. Within days after Russia first invaded Ukraine, reports of fuel shortages began to emerge, along with photos and videos of Russian tanks and other vehicles abandoned by the roadside. Military observers have also noted that the soft ground has forced Russian tanks to stay on roads, where they are more vulnerable, and that tanks are ill suited to warfare in urban settings, where Russia has been focusing much of its efforts.
More Electric Vehicles For The US Army
The US Marines Corps saw the writing on the wall several years ago and handed off its tanks to the US Army, which is still committed to tanks. However, the Army is hedging its bets, in the form of the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle program.
The JLTV program is led by the Army, and it will supply the Marines Corps as well. The aim is to develop a new vehicle that can “close an existing capability gap,” which indicates a focus on off-road and urban warfare.
The program involves a 2-seat and a 4-seat version, both of which can be helicoptered into their use points if road or marine travel is less than optimal, reducing the need for long, vulnerable convoys.
“Its maneuverability enables activities across the spectrum of terrain, including urban areas, while providing inherent and supplemental armor against direct fire and improvised explosive device threats,” the Army notes.
To the extent that the JLTV replaces tanks, the potential for the electrification of tactical vehicles suddenly pops into view, and at least one US Defense contractor is already has an eye on that opportunity.
So, What About An Electric JLTV For The US Army?
Last month, Oshkosh Defense debuted its concept for a hybrid electric JLTV, the eJLTV, billed as the “first-ever silent drive hybrid-electric Joint Light Tactical Vehicle.”
“The eJLTV offers the U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps the same level of performance and protection as the base JLTV with the addition of silent drive, extended silent watch, enhanced fuel economy, and increased exportable power that enables it to be used in combat and reconnaissance scenarios,” Oshkosh enthused.
Full electrification is going to take a while, but an all-electric JLTV seems more doable than an all-electric tank, especially if fuel cells come into play. In addition, the US Army is edging towards an electrification program for its Light Reconnaissance Vehicles. If you have any thoughts about that, drop us a note in the comment thread.
Meanwhile, the US Army Reserve has launched an EV program for its non-tactical vehicles. The initial phase of the program involves installing 27 Level 2 charging stations with multiple ports at 3 US Army Reserve facilities in Washington and California, along with the delivery of 60 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles.
After FY 23, the pace will pick up sharply.
“The Phase 1 Army Reserve EV pilot program will conclude in FY23. Phase 2 will add 96 vehicles to 9 facilities, Phase 3 will more widely rollout 934 vehicles to 101 facilities, and Phase 4 will add 962 vehicles at the remaining 650 facilities. The future all-electric Army Reserve NTV fleet will include over 2,000 vehicles at 763 total facilities,” the US Army Reserve writes.
There, Was That So Hard?
Against this backdrop, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy’s decision to lock the Postal Service into a massive new purchase plan for gas-powered delivery trucks seems rather dated. After all, lots of other trucks are being electrified, including garbage trucks and fire trucks.
Speaking of electric fire trucks, Oshkosh Defense makes those. The company has also stated that its winning mail delivery truck was purpose-designed for gas or electricity. Between one thing and another, there may be a pathway for electrification in that Postal Service contract after all.
As for Russia, as of this writing, it has not given up on tank warfare. Eventually it may declare some sort of victory, but when the shooting stops, the war crimes trials will begin. Russia’s position and economic status in the world will be crippled for generations to come, just as it was during the Cold War.
Follow me on Twitter @TinaMCasey.
Photo: A prototype hybrid electric tank is part of the US Army’s electric vehicle plans (photo courtesy of US Army).
SINGAPORE is exploring the feasibility of a piloted electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) trial, as it eyes a slice of the growing global market for these vehicles, Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat said on Monday (Feb 14).
This comes as Singapore is looking to grow the advanced air mobility community at Seletar Aerospace Park, Heng said during the opening ceremony of the Singapore Airshow 2022 held at Marina Bay Sands.
The plan is to create an “enabling ecosystem” for a wide range of activities including research and development, commercialisation, manufacturing and eventually, maintenance, repair and operations (MRO), he said.
“To give a boost to this nascent industry, we are exploring the feasibility of the first piloted eVTOL trial in Singapore, possibly along the Greater Southern Waterfront,” Heng said.
He added that the government will be working closely with industry partners such as Volocopter and Skyports to develop use cases and operating frameworks.
Meanwhile, plans are also afoot to grow Seletar Aerospace Park into a leading aerospace industrial park in the region.
Heng said the government expects to complete construction of aeroSpace Three at the park.
He noted that it will provide aerospace companies with “plug and play” smart factory solutions for advanced aerospace manufacturing and MRO activities, adding that there is “good demand” for such customisable spaces.
These are part of Singapore’s plans to grow the aviation and aerospace sectors, Heng said, as he outlined Singapore’s vision in both the immediate and long term.
At the moment, the government’s focus is to invest in new capabilities and in its workers as it strengthens the path to recovery, he said, adding that this involves wage support as well as training programmes to upskill workers.
“In the coming decade, the flight path will be defined by digitalisation and sustainability. Hence, we must redouble efforts to make these major transitions and unlock new possibilities,” Heng said.
He noted that airports, airlines and the global aerospace industry are seeking to leverage digitalisation to transform their operations and Singapore is no different.
In the area of sustainability, Singapore is now piloting the use of sustainable aviation fuels at Changi Airport, while Finnish oil refinery Neste is expanding its presence in Singapore to produce renewable jet fuel at a commercial scale.
Touching on the next 20 years and beyond, Heng said: “New breakthroughs will reshape aviation and aerospace. We must invest in disruptive innovation today, to be at the forefront of change.”
Besides eVOTL, Heng said another possible gamechanger is autonomous aircraft.
For example, autonomous vehicles can be adopted for aviation, initially to guide and control aircraft and eventually to transport cargo and people autonomously, Heng suggested.
With the Airshow being the largest trade and exhibition show to be held in Singapore since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic 2 years ago, Heng said the event underlines the Republic’s belief in the long-term prospects of the aviation and aerospace sectors.
It also reflects Singapore’s commitment to safely reopen its economy and borders to the rest of the world.
