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Cop26: world poised for big leap forward on climate crisis, says John Kerry

Posted on by dishanth
Cop26: world poised for big leap forward on climate crisis, says John Kerry

The world is poised to make a big leap forward at the UN Cop26 climate summit, with world leaders “sharpening their pencils” to make fresh commitments that could put the goals of the 2015 Paris agreement within reach, John Kerry has said.

Kerry, special envoy for climate to Joe Biden, gave an upbeat assessment of the prospects for Cop26, which begins in Glasgow at the end of this month, saying he anticipated “surprising announcements” from key countries.

“The measure of success at Glasgow is we will have the largest, most significant increase in ambition [on cutting emissions] by more countries than everyone ever imagined possible. A much larger group of people are stepping up,” he said in an interview with the Guardian. “I know certain countries are working hard right now on what they can achieve.”

Kerry cautioned that there was “still a lot of distance to travel in the next four weeks” and that the progress he anticipated was not yet “signed, sealed and delivered”. That view echoes private soundings the Guardian has taken from the UK hosts, the UN and other key figures.

But he said Cop26 could set the scene for further progress to follow swiftly. “There is not a wall that comes down after Glasgow,” said Kerry. “It is the starting line for the rest of the decade.”

But Kerry, one of the pivotal figures at the talks, also acknowledged the outcome would fall short of a fully fledged deal meeting the aims of the Paris accord, which binds nations to hold global heating to “well below” 2C, with an aspirational limit of 1.5C.

 

Kerry delivers a speech at Cop25 in Madrid in 2019. Photograph: Fernando Villar/EPA

 

“Will it be that every country has signed on and locked in? The answer is no, that will not happen,” he said. “But it is possible to reach that if [Cop26 creates] enough momentum.”

He said: “Glasgow has to show strong commitment to keeping 1.5C in reach, but that does not mean every country will get there. We acknowledge that there will be a gap [between the emissions cuts countries offer and those needed for a 1.5C limit]. The question is, will we have created a critical mass? We are close to that. If we have some more countries stepping up in the next weeks, we have something to build on.”

Under the 2015 Paris agreement, 197 parties – every government bar a few failed states – agreed to hold global temperature rises to “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels, while “pursuing efforts” to stay within 1.5C. But the commitments governments made on cutting emissions at Paris, called nationally determined contributions (NDCs), were too weak, and would lead to more than 3C of heating, so countries also agreed to return every five years to ratchet up their ambitions.

Those commitments should be made at the two-week Glasgow summit, which begins on 31 October, having been postponed for a year because of Covid-19, to be attended by more than 120 world leaders. In the six years since Paris, scientists have presented a clearer warning of the dangers of allowing temperatures to rise beyond the tougher 1.5C limit, so the declared aim of the UK hosts is to “keep 1.5C alive” by gathering enough NDCs, climate finance and pledges to phase out coal and preserve forests, to make that possible.

 

Staying within the 1.5C threshold would require carbon emissions to fall by 45% this decade, but apart from a brief plunge owing to Covid-19 lockdowns, emissions are still rising and are forecast to show their second-strongest leap on record this year. Despite new NDCs from the US, the UK, the EU and others, in total the commitments so far would lead to a 16% rise in emissions.

China, the world’s biggest emitter, will be key to any hopes of a strong outcome at Cop26, but has yet to submit a new NDC. The president, Xi Jinping, who has not left China since the start of the pandemic, has not said whether he will come to Glasgow.

Kerry said Cop26 could still be a success if Xi did not attend. “I am hopeful that President Xi is very much engaged and is personally making decisions, and personally committed,” he said, pointing to a long phone call between Xi and Biden recently in which the climate was discussed. “There was a very clear commitment to work with the US to achieve our goals. We are very hopeful.”

Another positive sign, he said, was that rich nations were close to fulfilling a longstanding pledge that developing countries would receive $100bn (£73bn) a year in financial assistance to help them cut emissions and cope with the effects of extreme weather, which has so far been missed. Biden recently vowed to double the US pledge of climate finance to $11bn a year by 2024, and other countries have stepped up their efforts, leading the climate economist Nicholas Stern to predict that the $100bn target would be met next year.

 

Xi Jinping remotely attends the Leaders Summit on Climate in April. Photograph: Xinhua/Rex/Shutterstock

 

“We need to get $100bn locked in, whether that is this year or next year. I believe we are going to be there with the money President Biden offered,” Kerry said.

He said countries must also agree to reform fossil fuel subsidies, which amount to hundreds of billions a year. “If you want a definition of insanity, it’s subsidising the very problem you are trying to solve,” he said.

Kerry, a longstanding US senator who challenged George W Bush for the presidency and served as US secretary of state under Barack Obama when the Paris agreement was signed, is embarking on a final hectic round of diplomacy in the next few weeks, with meetings planned with Russia, China, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. World leaders will also meet for the G20 summit in the days before they arrive in Glasgow.

In those meetings, Kerry will point to the commitments Biden has made domestically, including phasing out fossil fuels from electricity generation and reducing emissions from cars. “The US is heading to a post-2035 future where our power sector will be carbon-free. That is not a small step. I hope that can encourage other countries too, with regard to what they might be trying to achieve.”

He will also emphasise the technological advances that could help countries to move faster. “There is a massive amount of money and energy going to bringing these [clean technologies] up to scale,” he said.

Kerry was also confident the US’s post-pandemic infrastructure bill, which Biden hopes to be the engine of a “green recovery”, but which may be scaled back from the $3.5tn envisaged amid opposition and delays, would be passed.

Asked if he was worried about there being any upsets at the Cop26 conference, Kerry said: “I’m not succumbing to any fear at this point. Keep going, straight ahead.”

Alok Sharma, the UK cabinet minister and president-designate of Cop26, travelled to the French capital on Tuesday to call for world leaders to reprise the spirit of the Paris agreement, and come forward urgently with fresh commitments. He said: “Cop26 is not a photo op or a talking shop. It must be the forum where we put the world on track to deliver on climate. And that is down to leaders … Responsibility rests with each and every country, and we must all play our part. Because on climate, the world will succeed or fail as one.”

 

 

Source The Guardian

Cutting methane should be a key Cop26 aim, research suggests

Posted on by dishanth
Cutting methane should be a key Cop26 aim, research suggests

Sharp cuts in methane from leaking gas drilling platforms and production sites could play a major role in the greenhouse gas emissions reductions necessary to fulfil the Paris climate agreement, and should be a key aim for the Cop26 UN climate talks, new research suggests.

Cutting global emissions of methane by 40% by 2030 is achievable, with most cuts possible at low cost or even at a profit for companies such as oil and gas producers. It would make up for much of the shortfall in emissions reductions plans from national governments, according to the Energy Transitions Commission thinktank.

Ahead of Cop26, senior UN and UK officials have privately conceded that the top aim of the conference – for all countries to formulate plans called nationally determined contributions (NDCs), that would add up to a global 45% cut in emissions by 2030 – will not be met.

 

However, the UK as hosts of the summit, to be held in Glasgow in November, still hope for enough progress to show that the world can still limit global heating to 1.5C, the aspiration of the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in warming the planet. It is the biggest component of natural gas, used for fuel, and leaks can be caused by poorly constructed conventional drilling operations, shale gas wells, gas pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure. Methane is also flared from some oil production sites.

Staunching such leaks or capturing the methane instead can be done at a low cost, and can even be profitable for gas producers, especially now as the international gas price soars. Just a few key producers – Russia, the US, China and Canada – could make a massive impact.

Lord Adair Turner, chairman of the ETC, said: “It is clear that if you add up NDCs they are not big enough to keep us to 1.5C. There is a huge gap left. But there are some actions that you can imagine groups of countries taking that could close that gap.”

The US and the EU recently announced a partnership aiming at reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030, but Turner said more could be achieved and this would help to compensate for the relatively unambitious NDCs that many countries have.

 

“We have not focused enough on methane, but it can be a really important lever, and cutting it has an impact [on global heating] sooner rather than later, which matters if there are feedback loops in the climate system,” he added.

Turner also pointed to other key actions that could be taken at Cop26 which he said would substantially help global efforts to tackle the climate crisis. For instance, helping developing countries to phase out their existing coal-fired power plants was one key way of reducing reliance on coal.

In India, for instance, new coal-fired power stations are now more expensive than renewable alternatives, yet the marginal cost of electricity generation from existing coal-fired power stations is still cheaper than wind or solar. That means companies have an incentive to keep old coal-fired power plants going, but if they could be paid to phase out the oldest, that would accelerate the country’s move away from coal.

“Developing countries need financial support to do this,” Turner said.

Steel should be another focus, according to Turner. Steel companies could move to “green” steel production, using hydrogen, far more easily than a few years ago, he said. A global agreement among steel producers at Cop26 could achieve that, and similar global agreements were possible among cement producers, the shipping industry and other high-carbon sectors.

Many countries, Turner added, were submitting NDCs that were too cautious or did not reflect how fast businesses were already cutting emissions and moving to green energy and clean technology. “NDCs have not caught up with what is possible and what is actually happening,” he said.

 

 

Source The Guardian

Climate change: Israel to cut 85% of emissions by mid-century

Posted on by dishanth
Climate change: Israel to cut 85% of emissions by mid-century

Israel will cut carbon emissions by 85% from 2015 levels by the middle of the century, its government says.

Its prime minister said the decision would help the country gradually shift to a low-carbon economy.

Targets include cutting the vast majority of emissions from transport, the electricity sector and municipal waste.

But critics want more ambitious targets for renewable energy and bigger economic incentives for change.

The world has already warmed by about 1.2C since the industrial era began, and temperatures will keep rising unless governments around the world make steep cuts to emissions.

But Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said the move would lead to a “clean, efficient and competitive economy” and put Israel at the forefront of the battle against climate change.

Israel’s targets were in line with the 2015 Paris climate agreement – a legally binding international treaty on climate change adopted by nearly 200 countries.

It aims to keep global temperatures below 2.0C above pre-industrial times, and if possible below 1.5C above pre-industrial times.

Israel signed the Paris climate deal. It has set itself an interim goal of cutting emissions by 27% by 2030.

Under President Donald Trump the US pulled out of the deal but President Joe Biden has recommitted to it.

 

 

Source BBC

Hitting global climate target could create 8 million energy jobs

Posted on by dishanth
Hitting global climate target could create 8 million energy jobs

If some politicians are to be believed, taking sweeping action to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement would be calamitous for jobs in the energy sector. But a study suggests that honouring the global climate target would, in fact, increase net jobs by about 8 million by 2050.

The study – in which researchers created a global dataset of the footprint of energy jobs in 50 countries including major fossil fuel-producing economies – found that currently an estimated 18 million people work in the energy industries, which is likely to increase to 26 million if climate targets are met.

Previous research suggests that pro-climate polices could increase net energy jobs by 20 million or more, but that work relied only on empirical data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and generalised the results for the rest of the world using a multiplier. But the data varies dramatically across regions, driven by differences in technology and rates of unionisation, among other factors. For instance, extracting 1m tonnes of coal in India takes 725 workers, versus 73 in the US.

The latest analysis, published in the journal One Earth, combined such employment factors across a global dataset (including key fossil fuel, non-OECD economies such as Russia, India and China) with an integrated assessment model, which combines climate and economic estimates to predict the costs of climate change.

“This dataset makes the analysis more grounded in … reality, rather than using a multiplier,” said one of the study’s authors, Dr Sandeep Pai, who led the analysis as part of his PhD at the institute for resources, environment and sustainability at the University of British Columbia in Canada.

Under the target scenario of global temperatures being held well below 2C of pre-industrial levels, of the total jobs in the energy sector in 2050, 84% would be in the renewables sector, 11% in fossil fuels, and 5% in nuclear, the analysis found. Although fossil-fuel extraction jobs – which constitute the lion’s share (80%) of current fossil fuel jobs – will decline steeply, those losses should be offset by gains in solar and wind manufacturing jobs that countries could compete for, the researchers estimated.

However, while most countries will experience a net job increase, China and fossil fuel-exporting countries such as Canada, Australia and Mexico could have net losses.

Undoubtedly, there will be winners and losers. The winners will be people who take these jobs in the renewable sector, and there are the health benefits of fresh air and cleaner cities – but there will also be people, companies and governments who lose out, said Pai.

“That’s why … we want to work towards a ‘just’ transition, make sure nobody’s left behind,” he said. “The point is that unless politics and social context of different countries align, I think this technological transition will not happen soon.”

Johannes Emmerling, an environmental economist at the RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment in Italy, another author of the study, acknowledged that the analysis did not account for the gaps in skills.

People working in the fossil fuel industry do not necessarily have the expertise or the experience to carry out jobs in the renewable sector, but given that there are few estimates of jobs as the world aims to forge a greener future, the focus was on firming up estimates, he said, adding that skills were the next avenue of research.

 

 

By 

Source The Guardian

Climate change: Biden summit to push for ‘immediate’ action

Posted on by dishanth
Climate change: Biden summit to push for ‘immediate’ action

The US will attempt to re-assert its global leadership on climate change as President Joe Biden hosts 40 leaders at a virtual summit in the White House.

It’s expected that the US will unveil an updated carbon pledge that will see their emissions nearly halved by 2030.

Ahead of the meeting, officials urged greater ambition on countries perceived as laggards on climate.

Referring to Australia, an official said “there would have to be a shift” in their approach.

President Biden has made climate change a key focus in the early days of his administration.

As well as re-joining the Paris climate agreement on his first day in office, he announced early on that he would gather around 40 world leaders for a global summit on Earth Day – 22 April.

 

President Biden rejoined the Paris agreement on his first day in office and pledged to hold a leaders summit shortly after Image Jim Watson

 

Among those attending will be China’s President Xi Jinping.

Despite serious tensions between the two countries on a host of issues, both sides seem keen to keep climate change separate from these disputes. Last weekend, the two countries issued a joint statement saying they would tackle climate “with the seriousness and urgency it demands”.

Speaking ahead of the meeting, a senior Biden administration official spoke warmly about the potential for co-operation.

“It’s quite clear that there is a distinctly shared level of ambition. Both countries see this as a crisis. Both countries see the need for action in the 2020s. Both countries see the need to work towards holding the increase in global temperatures to 1.5C,” he said.

“We certainly hope that President Xi will come to the meeting, and further elaborate on some of the additional efforts that China would choose to make. But I think we’ve got a very strong basis in the joint statement that the two countries made about the directions they seem to be moving.”

 

Protestors outside the White House hold cardboard cut outs of the leaders due to meet Source Reuters

 

But for other countries who have been slow to embrace action on climate change, the Biden team were less effusive.

Both Brazil and Australia’s sceptical approach to the issue had found favour in the Trump White House. That’s no longer the case.

“At the moment, I think that our colleagues in Australia recognise that there’s going to have to be a shift,” one official said.

“It’s insufficient to follow the existing trajectory, and hope that they will be on a course to deep decarbonisation, and getting to net zero emissions by mid-century.”

Speaking about Brazil, the same official said: “The expectation for all countries is that the ambition has to be increased immediately.”

But while the US is talking strongly about ambition, the proof of change for many observers will be in their new carbon-cutting pledge for 2030 they are expected to announce at the summit.

 

Despite some earlier uncertainty, China President Xi Jinping will address the US summit

 

This will require some clever footwork from the US. They will have to go for a figure that is scientifically credible but also politically achievable.

While the Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives, the Senate is essentially deadlocked, making the passage of new climate legislation rather tricky.

“It seems to me that President Biden is in a bit of a bind, and he has to deal with the Congress that he has,” said Samantha Gross from the Brookings Institution.

“But I believe that Congress, particularly the Republicans, haven’t really kept up with increasing concern among the American public about climate.”

For some in the international community, even the mooted 50% cut in emissions won’t be going far enough.

 

A coal train snakes through the landscape in the US – predictions are that coal use will increase this year as the economy recovers from the pandemic Source Getty Images

 

“The US should cut at least 55% from 2005 levels by 2030 to inspire others to raise their ambitions,” said Quamrul Chowdhury, from Bangladesh and a climate negotiator for the Least Developed countries group.

“Mitigation is the best adaptation and major economies must cutback emissions quickly and steeply.”

The US pledge will undoubtedly be the headline, whatever its size – but there are also expected to be new steps announced by a number of countries.

“The three that I think are most likely beside the US to step up at this summit are Canada, Japan and South Korea,” said Helen Mountford from the World Resources Institute (WRI).

 

Australia’s prime minister Scott Morrison has been criticised for slow action on climate Source Tracy Nearmy

 

“China… would be fantastic, but I think [we[ quite likely might wait longer, I wouldn’t expect it at this time.”

She added: “India is a real question mark, but whether they’re going to announce either a net zero target or enhanced plan, I would say there’s less of a chance of that.”

For those who were involved in the negotiations that led to the Paris agreement in 2015, the key thing this week is not to derail the discussions at the first hurdle.

This is the first big climate meeting of a critical year that will culminate in a gathering of around 200 world leaders in Glasgow in November at COP26.

“I think that for the US leaders summit to be a success, we need to have the 40 leaders present and expressing their willingness to reach strong agreement by Glasgow,” said Remy Rioux, who was a negotiator for France during the Paris talks.

“And also for the US to demonstrate that they are back, and that they are back as convincingly and strongly as possible.”

 

 

By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent

Source BBC

How US$154 billion in capital has gone to 300 forest-risk companies since the Paris Agreement

Posted on by dishanth
How US$154 billion in capital has gone to 300 forest-risk companies since the Paris Agreement

Since the Paris climate agreement was signed in 2016, 300 companies at risk for contributing to deforestation have received at least $153.9 billion in financing, according to a new analysis by Forests and Finance. By trawling through publicly available bank records, corporate disclosure sheets, filings, and media records, researchers from the group were able to track more than 50,000 financial deals from across the world, publishing the results of their investigation in a searchable database this week.

The 300 companies that were analyzed received capital in the form of loans or investments and were involved in the production of pulp and paper, beef, palm oil, soy, rubber, or timber.

“We’re not directly accusing any of these companies of deforestation,” said Merel van der Mark, coordinator of the Forests and Finance Coalition, a joint project between six research and environmental advocacy groups. “We’re just saying they’re deforestation-risk companies because historically companies operating in these sectors have been linked to deforestation.”

The Forests and Finance database has existed since 2016, but this is the first year that it was expanded to include companies operating in Brazil or Central and West Africa. Previously it only gathered data on those working in Southeast Asia.

According to the new data, since 2016 banks and other investors have pumped $95.2 billion into forest-risk companies in Brazil, $54.2 billion to those in Southeast Asia, and $4.5 billion to those in Central and West Africa. In the years since the Paris Agreement was signed, those companies have benefited from a 40 per cent increase in credit overall.

The top creditor was Banco do Brasil, a government-owned bank that loaned $30 billion to forest-risk companies in Brazil, largely through the country’s Agriculture Finance Program, which disburses loans to domestic agribusinesses. Bradesco, a private bank in Brazil, was the second-largest creditor, followed by Rabobank of the Netherlands, JPMorgan Chase of the U.S., and Mizuho Financial of Japan.

Brazil’s beef sector, which continues to be linked to deforestation in the Amazon, received about 43 per cent of the credit that was directed to forest-risk industries in the country, making it the largest beneficiary of bank loans.

On the investment side, the Brazilian Economic Development Bank was the largest source of capital for companies working in Brazil, primarily via holdings in the beef and paper industries. BlackRock and Vanguard, two U.S.-based asset management companies, were also in the top three sources of investment for forest-risk industries in Brazil.

The two largest investors overall in the data set were the Malaysian government investment funds Permodalan Nasional Berhad and Employees Provident Fund, which together have sunk $13 billion into companies at risk of deforestation, almost entirely in the oil palm sector. Sime Darby Plantations, a Malaysian oil palm mega-producer, received the most investment of any company in Southeast Asia at $7.1 billion.

In West and Central Africa, Chinese banks dominated the credit landscape, holding eight spots in the top 10 largest lenders to forest-risk companies. The rubber industry was the largest recipient of loans in the region, receiving $2.8 billion overall. Nearly all of that financing went to Sinochem, a Chinese state-owned conglomerate that owns Halcyon Agri, which has been accused of deforestation and the mistreatment of rural communities in Cameroon.

Researchers from Forest and Finance say the purpose of the database is to help the public understand how much money is being directed toward industries that have been known to drive deforestation, and which financial institutions are providing those funds. Of the 15 banks with the largest overall loan portfolios to forest-risk industries, eight have signed the UN’s Principles for Responsible Banking, which includes a commitment to “halt deforestation.”

“We think it’s important that banks and investors develop policies and due diligence processes that ensure that their clients are not involved in deforestation,” said van der Mark. “And we want to show the extent that those banks are potentially exposed to that risk.”

The database is the product of a painstaking process of digging through corporate and bank disclosure documents from across the world, and researchers say their figures are almost certainly an underestimate. In many jurisdictions there are no requirements for companies to disclose the sources of their financing, and while pooled loans provided by multiple banks are generally made public, information about bilateral loans given by a single bank to a client is much harder to uncover.

“There’s definitely a significant amount missing, particularly in jurisdictions where the regulations don’t have sufficient requirements on transparency,” said Ward Wamerdam, senior researcher at Profundo and one of the lead investigators for Forests and Finance.

While the data available offer a crucial picture of capital flows into forest-risk industries, van der Mark says the challenges that Forests and Finance researchers faced speak to a greater need for disclosure requirements across the world.

“One of our criticisms is exactly the fact that there’s a huge lack of transparency,” she said. “The financial industry is notorious for setting up these structures that make it almost impossible to track the beneficiary owner of any funds.”

This story was published with permission from Mongabay.com.

 

 

By Ashoka Mukpo, Mongabay.com

Source: eco-business